Entire regions have been submerged in mud after the devastating flood in Nepal and Tibet . The toll, as it stands now, is heavy: at least 567 dead and 1,924 missing. A number that, given the severity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of accessing the affected areas, will hardly remain at its current levels.
Search and rescue operations are continuing. However, on Friday, a new alert was sounded on the border of northern Nepal with China, due to the threat of overflowing of a lake formed as a result of the disaster itself. In other words, the disaster is not yet over.
The video that showed the beginning
BBC Verify has verified the authenticity of two videos capturing the moment a glacier collapsed in the Himalayas — the event believed to have triggered the chain. The footage, taken by drone and posted on the Chinese platform Xiaohongshu, shows the landslide near the Langtang Lirung peak, at an altitude of more than 7,200 metres .
The image shows huge columns of dust rising between the snow-capped mountains, a scene that, without a reference scale, seems almost abstract. The location of the videos matches the direction of the waters that subsequently poured along the Trisuli River.
Two glaciers under close monitoring
Nepal Meteorological Department officials said they were trying to monitor two other glaciers near the one that collapsed. Some images they had taken appeared to show cracks, but that did not necessarily mean another collapse was imminent, as cracks could have been present for some time.
“Given what happened to the nearby glacier, we are trying to monitor it as much as possible,” a senior official from the Hydrology and Meteorology Service told the BBC, explaining that drone images are being examined.
Experts from ICIMOD , the international organization specializing in Himalayan hazards, point out that the two other glaciers feed the Lende River, which flooded. “Satellite images suggest that one of the glaciers may contain glacial masses that require monitoring and assessment,” said Qianghong Zhang , head of the organization’s climate and environmental hazards department.
The element that worries scientists the most is the morphology: hanging glaciers are considered more dangerous, as they cling to steep slopes, just as happened with the section of the glacier that collapsed.
Villages under the mud
The huge volume of water and mud flooded the region between Nepal and Tibet on Wednesday morning, sweeping away entire villages . Indicative of the severity is a video from a house on the border, where people can be seen trapped on a balcony, while the water furiously sweeps away everything in its path.
The geography of death, as captured in the rescuers’ recoveries, shows how far the disaster traveled from ground zero: 12 bodies from Rasuwa , 37 from Nuwakot , 40 from Dandi , 54 from Gorkha , 154 from eastern Nawalparasi , 27 from western Nawalparasi , 20 from Tanahun and 223 from Chitwan .
Within this image, there was a moment of relief. The Nepalese army managed to enter a hydroelectric project tunnel, which had become almost inaccessible due to floods, and located 350 workers and residents . Related videos show rescuers and trapped people crawling through the mud.
The danger that did not pass
The biggest threat now lies not behind but ahead. Nepal is monitoring two lakes that formed upstream in the region, near where the glacier’s collapse dumped rocks, ice, mud and debris into river systems. A Disaster Management Authority official said the risk will remain until both lakes are fully drained, while one has already begun to overflow.
The formation of the first was captured in aerial photographs taken by a Chinese rescue team on Thursday: huge amounts of brown water accumulating in a basin. That water has now drained, according to the latest satellite images.
The problem is the second one. The same images show a growing lake, with a larger surface area than the first one and with no visible outlet for the water, which means that the pressure may continue to increase.
The battle with the lack of tools
Nepalese authorities rely heavily on satellite imagery to track developments, with the limitation that monitoring depends on the availability of imagery. It is, in other words, a country trying to predict the next movement of a mountain with inadequate means.
The plan includes the installation of cameras and sensors downstream, including near the border town of Timouré , while options for deploying helicopters are also being evaluated.
The international reaction
The European Union has announced two million euros in emergency aid for Nepal. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the money will provide vital support to the families and communities most affected.
The amount, however necessary for immediate relief, gives the measure of a wider disproportion: the communities living under the Himalayan glaciers are among the most exposed on the planet to phenomena of this type, and at the same time among the least equipped to predict or withstand them. As long as the toll of missing persons remains in four figures and the second lake continues to fill, the counting of the consequences remains open.
