Eight ballistic missiles, a strike on a small island in the Persian Gulf, and a warning from the White House that a response would come. Within a few hours, the US – Iran showdown shifted once again from the logic of economic pressure to that of actual gunfire.
Donald Trump left no room for misinterpretation. Speaking on Fox News on Monday, he warned of retaliation for Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan . “We’re going to hit them hard,” he said, adding that “there will be a response.”
In the same conversation, he also revealed a detail that says a lot about how the night was managed. The American forces, he said, deliberately let an Iranian missile pass through the air defenses , as they judged that it was not going to hit any target. The rest were intercepted.
Despite the harsh language, the US president left a small margin for talks with Tehran , but did not hide his distrust. “They desperately want to meet,” he said. “I just don’t know if you can count on a deal with them.” He added that “the sanctions are starting to have a very strong impact.”
This assessment is well-founded. Iranian officials are increasingly acknowledging the impact of US sanctions and declining oil exports, while regional intelligence sources warn that the growing economic pressure could spark a new wave of internal unrest . The most telling indicator is in the currency. The Iranian rial has fallen to about 2.1 million to the dollar, a record low.
On the military front, a US source told Fox News that there were no significant impacts from the launch of at least eight ballistic missiles against US forces in Jordan on Sunday.
This attack, however, was not the starting point but the reaction. It had been preceded by a US strike against Revolutionary Guards launchers on Larak Island, which was carried out after preparations were detected for a missile launch aimed at deploying new sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz . US Central Command described the operation as a “limited and precise action” against mine-laying forces that posed an “imminent threat” to commercial shipping and the unimpeded flow of global trade.
This is where the real stakes lie. A huge portion of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any threat of mining almost automatically translates into turmoil in international energy markets. The American side, in other words, is not only defending its forces in the region, but also a corridor on which the global economy depends.
The question that remains is how long this cycle will last. Tehran acknowledges the pressure but has not yet shown that it is ready to change course or reach an agreement with Washington. And as long as the economic suffocation does not lead to the negotiating table, it will most likely continue to express itself on the ground.
