A highly risky oil transport operation is underway in the Strait of Hormuz, as major Gulf oil-producing countries seek ways to keep their exports open despite tensions with Iran and the constant risk of attacks.
Tankers now move through the strategic sea passage with their AIS systems disabled , often at night and, in some cases, with military escorts. This is a tactic that limits their ability to be tracked by commercial platforms, but does not make them invisible to military surveillance.
The case of the supertanker Kiku is considered typical. The ship departed in late July loaded with crude oil from Qatar and, while off Dubai, its AIS signal stopped transmitting. It reappeared the next morning, having already crossed the Straits. This particular case is even more interesting because the same tanker had been the target of a drone attack about a month earlier, without suffering any damage.
The practice is just one part of a larger scheme. Oil companies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates use tankers to transport cargo through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. There , oil is transshipped from ship to ship , so that the cargo continues on to international markets on a different tanker, while the original vessel returns to the Persian Gulf.
In this way, they attempt to limit both the time commercial ships are exposed to the danger zone and the financial costs caused by skyrocketing insurance premiums and the increased risk of war .
Despite the dramatic reduction in shipping traffic shown on some monitoring platforms, the actual amount of oil still passing through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be significantly higher. According to the figures, an average of 8 to 9 million barrels per day are moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Particularly striking is Kpler’s estimate that approximately 80% of the traffic in the last two weeks has been carried out with AIS deactivated . Tankers are also reportedly following routes as close as possible to the coast of Oman, attempting to keep a greater distance from Iran.
Hormuz, however, remains one of the most important energy bottlenecks on the planet. Any serious and prolonged disruption to shipping could translate almost immediately into oil, gas, transportation prices and ultimately inflation in major economies.
That is why the Gulf countries are simultaneously attempting to exploit every available alternative route. Saudi Arabia channels about 5 million barrels per day through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding the Straits altogether.
At the same time, according to available data, other countries have transferred approximately 2 million barrels per day to alternative routes , while increased production from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela acts as an additional “cushion” for global supply.
The picture that emerges is impressive: tankers without active AIS, night transits, military convoys, cargo transhipments at sea and pipelines working at increased rates compose a new energy emergency map.
Gulf producers appear determined to keep the oil flowing. But as long as the threat of military escalation remains, every passage of a loaded tanker through the Strait of Hormuz becomes a high-risk operation — and each new episode could cause turmoil far beyond the waters of the Persian Gulf.
