As #August15th approached this year, a wake-up call came to us from where no one expected it.
From… #Mecca !
We’ve been told that for years.
— “The defensive axes are finished”
The times of “camps” , regional alliances and defense pacts are supposedly over.
— And with this myth came the second myth:
— “Alliances against a common enemy no longer make sense”
They didn’t tell us exactly that. They told us that the enemy of our enemy is not necessarily our friend.
That’s right! He’s not “obligatory” our friend . When? When there is no longer a common enemy .
But until then , you always make alliances against a common enemy .
And anyone who disagrees essentially removes the ability from Greece to make any meaningful alliances: against a common enemy ….
So they told us – and insisted – that #Greece did not need to create its own defense axes . It was enough for it to participate in international organizations and strictly apply #International_Law …
He did not need to seek strategic convergences in the region.
He had to talk to everyone, not “camp” with anyone, not provoke and, most importantly, not deal with geopolitics on the terms of the old era.
And now?
Now #Turkey , #Saudi_Arabia and #Pakistan have signed a #mutualdefense agreement in Mecca.
With the clause that an attack against one is considered an attack against all !
The Turkish Foreign Minister even likened it, “technically” , to Article 5 of NATO .
And Turkey is a member of #NATO !
Are the “defensive axes” finally over?
Or did they end just for… us ?
And alliances against common dangers “no longer make sense” ?
Then why are they being created now?
Do they make more sense now than ever ?
Were our learned “analysts” not trying to bring us into the “new world” that is emerging around us, but were clinging to their illusions about something that no longer exists?
- Don’t look at the signatures. Look at the interests.
However, let’s not make the opposite mistake.
There is no need for panic or exaggeration .
A defense agreement does not become valid because it is ceremoniously signed.
A defense agreement is only as strong as it can withstand reality .
Which means two things:
As long as it is sustainable .
And as long as it is durable .
Sustainable means, against a real common enemy .
And durable means that it is stronger than the internal rivalries between the countries that sign it.
As we will see immediately, the new Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Pact is neither sustainable nor durable .
Three countries.
Three different fears.
Three different orientations …
— Pakistan has one key strategic rival:
India .
— Saudi Arabia has another one:
Iran .
And along with Iran, it fears regional powers linked to Iranian influence ( Houthi, Hezbollah , etc.)
And he fears something even deeper: the Sunni Islamist networks that challenge the Gulf regimes themselves.
— Turkey has a completely different geopolitical agenda – thoroughly “revisionist” :
To Syria , Iraq , Caucasus , Libya , Africa .
And of course, Greece , Cyprus , the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean .
Even more: It has open strategic competition with Israel , which is a privileged ally of the US in the Middle East.
And with Greece, of course. Which is also a NATO member and an EU member state, just like Cyprus…
Pakistan looks towards India .
Saudi Arabia looks to Iran .
Turkey is looking at much more…
So who is the “common enemy” ?
This is the first big question about the “viability” of the new scheme. And in this case, there doesn’t seem to be a “common enemy” …
The scheme, besides NOT sustainable, is also NOT durable . Because Islamist networks are an existential threat to Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Pakistan support them in every way. And they use them as a means of projecting power and a tool of blackmail …
The new format is neither externally sustainable nor internally durable .
- We’ve seen it before!
And History has warned us!
The Baghdad Pact – formed against the Soviet Union in 1955 .
Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Britain , with American support, created an ambitious defensive formation against the Soviet threat .
And yet it collapsed .
Iraq withdrew after the 1958 revolution.
The format was converted to CENTO .
And when Pakistan found itself at war with India, its allies did not consider it their war .
In 1979 , after the Iranian Revolution , CENTO ended for good.
The lesson is simple:
It’s not enough to have a common enemy on paper . You have to consider him a common enemy when the bombs start falling .
And this is the real test of the new deal . - But the new shape has something else: It intersects with geopolitical rivalries far beyond the wider region:
— Pakistan is a privileged strategic partner of China .
#Washington on the other hand wants to limit Chinese power.
And India has rivalries with both Pakistan and China, cooperates with Russia , and seeks to expand relations with the US …
So the new agreement does not only concern three countries.
It touches on the broader #China_India_USA confrontation.
— And in the #MiddleEast there is a second broader contradiction:
Washington wants to expand the #AbrahamAgreements and, most importantly, bring Saudi Arabia into strategic alignment with Israel .
Now Saudi Arabia is defensively linked to Turkey, which is in intense competition with Israel .
The Turkey-Pakistan strategic convergence is strengthening the expansion of Chinese influence in Eurasianism – and it is not pleasant for Washington.
The Turkey-Syria strategic convergence distances the expansion of the Abraham Accords – something very unpleasant for Washington (and for Israel).
And the convergence of Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia strengthens the Islamist networks that have infiltrated Europe and are constantly destabilizing it. Something that is unpleasant (and threatening) for the EU ….
- And a void is created
Herein lies the great geopolitical consequence .
The new scheme, although unsustainable in the medium-long term, creates a security vacuum now!
And security gaps don’t remain “empty” .
Others cover them.
Who are the “others” ?
Those primarily “affected” !
India.
Israel.
Emirates.
Egypt.
Greece.
Cyprus.
France.
United States.
Which will inevitably react by creating a grid of balance .
And “balancing” …
Because the Eastern Mediterranean is not a Turkish affair.
Not an Islamic issue either.
It is a strategic area for Europe and the entire West .
Sea routes.
Energy.
Trade.
Connecting Europe and the Middle East.
Security of Europe’s southern flank.
That’s why Greece must tell its allies something very simple:
Don’t underestimate the new reality.
And then do something even simpler:
To move. - With hands untied
To deepen the relationship with India .
To strengthen strategic cooperation with Israel .
To move forward together with the Emirates .
To strengthen-restore the axis with Egypt .
To exploit France .
To coordinate more closely with America .
And to make Cyprus an integral part of this architecture.
Not to “encircle” Turkey .
But so that no one can surround Greece .
But to do this, Greece must first untie its own hands .
The “Athens Declaration” on Friendly and Good-Neighborly Relations is not an international treaty and does not create legal obligations.
But it is a political commitment .
And it’s simple to disengage from it.
And simple . And now necessary !
Why can’t we strategically limit ourselves , so as not to “spoil the friendship” ,
When the other side maintains the casus belli , it creates new faits accomplis at its expense and is now free to build new defensive relationships .
Greece now needs strategic freedom .
So, hands free – no more illusions …
- And now both myths are collapsing
— They told us: “The axles are finished”
They’re not finished! They’re being made now. Others! At our expense …
— They told us: “Alliances against common enemies no longer make sense”
They have!
And the more dangerous the world becomes, the more they have.
Europe is talking about defense again – and about “strategic autonomy” from the US.
In Asia, various intersecting axes are being created.
In the Middle East, new rivalries are emerging and alliances are being re-formed.
And we are still debating whether we are allowed to use the word “axis” . And whether we are allowed to look for “allies against a common enemy” …
— It’s not enough to be right.
You must have allies .
— It is not enough to have international law.
You must have the strength to defend it.
— It is not enough to want peace.
You must have Deterrence .
And it’s not enough to just wait for them to protect you.
You must make your own safety the interest of others .
And project it to partners and allies.
This is what Greece must do now.
To speak.
To warn.
To approach.
To ally.
To build.
To turn the threat into an opportunity.
And above all: To untie her hands.
Because in a world where everyone builds alliances , the country that limits itself in the name of a “friendship” with the one who directly threatens it is not practicing a “peace-loving policy” .
It pursues a policy of self-disarmament .
And this is not “Peace” .
It is a choice of weakness .
Which brings exactly what it avoids:
The worst …
PS. And all of this probably requires more “brains” for the country, and another “face” to the outside world…
Above all, we are accustomed to an aging “political system” – one that does not dare to think outside its “box” .
Nor should he come out of his “shell” .
