A percentage that post-war Germany had not seen. In Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany jumped to 44.5% , according to the first exit poll by the ARD television network, recording a historic victory that is causing interest but also strong concern across Europe. It is the first time in the country’s post-war history that a far-right party is within breathing distance of forming a state government.
Pre-election polls showed the AfD at around 40%, but the momentum of the ballot box turned out to be even greater. The crucial question that remains open until the final integration concerns self-reliance . For an absolute majority, at least 42 of the 83 seats in the local parliament are required.
Based on the exit poll, the estimated distribution is as follows: AfD 39 seats , CDU 16 , Left 8 , Greens 8 , SPD 7 and BSW 5. It is worth noting that the newly formed BSW is just shy of the 5% threshold and the possibility of it remaining outside Parliament remains open.
The state’s electoral map was completely reversed compared to the 2021 elections. The AfD more than doubled its share, with an increase of 23.7% . In contrast, the Christian Democrats suffered a crushing defeat, losing half their strength, i.e. 18.6 points , and finishing second with just 18.5% .
The remaining forces are moving below 10%. The Left Party gathers 9.5%, with a small drop of 1.5 points. The Greens follow at 9%, being the only ones besides the AfD to emerge strengthened, with an increase of 3.1 points. The Social Democrats are limited to 8%, with a marginal drop of 0.4%. The Liberals , finally, have plummeted and with losses of 4.4% seem to disappear from the political map of the state.
The head of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Sigmund , did not hide his enthusiasm. Speaking to ARD, he described the result as a clear message to the federal government of Friedrich Merz , emphasizing: “We made history, we must say it clearly.” Referring to the cooperation scenarios, and despite the fact that the other forces have ruled out the partnership, he appeared open to discussions, but set his own conditions. “We will not give up our basic positions for the sake of power.”
The party’s co-chair at the federal level, Alice Weidel , also moved in the same direction. She spoke of a “historic result” and sent a clear message of readiness to assume governmental responsibilities. “Let’s see what else the evening brings, this is a very clear mandate for governance,” she said.
For his part, the outgoing state premier and head of the CDU ballot, Sven Schulze , acknowledged the verdict. “This is democracy, the people have sent a message,” he said, congratulating the AfD on its victory and making it clear that he did not consider it a dark day for democracy. It is now up to his party, he stressed, to find a way to manage the new realities. At the same time, he confessed that this particular election campaign was the toughest he had faced in his 25-year political career.
The possibility of any partnership was definitively ruled out by the CDU’s general secretary, Franziska Hoppermann . Speaking on public radio, she was absolute. “We will not cooperate with radicals, and especially not with far-right radicals,” she said, while rejecting the scenario that the state elections would influence the future of the German chancellor.
But here, the real puzzle of the next day arises. All political forces have categorically ruled out cooperation with the far right, making the “firewall” imperative. With the AfD, however, controlling almost half of the parliament, the mathematics make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to form a viable alternative coalition without its participation.
Political deadlock is just around the corner. And all eyes are now on the decisions to be made in Berlin, because the question is no longer just about one eastern German state. It is about whether an exclusion strategy can remain viable when the party being excluded is approaching half of the electorate.
