We could say more simply: The Lord is giving birth…
The electoral victory of the ” far-right ” party #AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is not just another “episode” in the rise of the German Far Right . It is another sign of a much broader shift :
#Europe ‘s center of gravity is clearly shifting to the right !
The AfD won about 43.8% of the vote, electing 39 of the state’s 83 members of parliament . It was just three seats short of an absolute majority . And the Christian Democratic #CDU , which had won 37.1% in 2021, collapsed to about 17.2% .
Here we are talking about a weakening of the electoral correlations on which the post-war political system of #Germany was based.
- And one more thing: In the pan-German opinion polls, the AfD is now reaching 30% , while the Christian Democratic coalition CDU-CSU (which currently governs) is around 20% …
When a party that for years was treated as a repulsive ” peculiarity ” of the former East Germany gradually ceases to be “repulsive” for a large portion of voters and ceases to be a “peculiarity of the East”, we do not simply have an ” East German phenomenon “.
We have a change in German society .
And Germany is no exception.
- #Sweden is perhaps the most characteristic example that this is something much broader and much deeper: the shift to the right does not necessarily mean that the parties of the radical Right are winning.
It is done in other ways and through other paths…
In Sunday’s election, Magdalena Andersson ‘s Social Democrats came in first with about 28.1% – which, however, is their worst result in more than a century . In 2022, they had received 30.3% (which was also their worst ever – and in the meantime they fell even lower!)
And yet, the center-left bloc is currently narrowly ahead of the right-wing coalition , with 176 seats to 173 in the 349-seat parliament. The difference is just three seats , and the count is not yet complete.
But Sweden is not returning to the politics of yesterday .
The “far-right” Sweden Democrats are falling from 20.5% to around 17.6% , losing around three points and a significant number of seats. From second place in 2022, they are falling to third place . But a party that was on the margins ten years ago remains in third place…
At the same time, the moderate Right Party shifted further to the right and rose to second place ! And it is the only one that rose…
Much of the politics that the “far-right” Sweden Democrats brought to the forefront has already passed into the political mainstream .
Sweden’s immigration policy has already become much stricter in the past four years. Crime , integration and security policies have also shifted.
#Andersson ‘s Social Democrats, if they finally take office, will not return to the ” open door ” policy of the past decade. On the contrary, they have declared that they will maintain a clearly stricter line on immigration and security .
In fact, she has already joined the politics of her opponents …
Sweden, therefore, does not cancel Europe’s shift to the right .
It makes it more complex .
The radical Right can sometimes lose votes and at the same time have won the political agenda .
- And not just Sweden! The whole of Europe is moving
Italy, France, Austria, Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, United Kingdom.
This is not a single political situation, nor are there parties of the same ideological category. Meloni is not Le Pen , Fico is not Farage , Babis is not the AfD .
But there is a common denominator :
Societies everywhere are looking for solutions clearly to the right of where the traditional parties , which until recently represented and governed them, were until recently…
The reasons are not difficult to identify.
— Illegal immigration , security and crime .
— Energy costs due to a “forced” green transition and the feeling of economic stagnation .
— The broader reaction to the #woke cultural agenda .
— And, finally, the fatigue from a war in #Ukraine that is protracted, with no easy way out in sight.
It does not mean that all Europeans have become “far right”.
It means that the priorities of societies have changed .
And the parties that don’t understand this leave room for those that do.
It’s not just the “far right” that are rising. Societies and the political center of gravity are shifting to the right .
Sometimes to absorb the rise of the “far right”…
- And one more thing: in Ukrainian , the AfD declares that it supports a more pro-Russian policy – which sounds like anathema to the entire European political establishment . And at the same time, American President Trump … congratulates the AfD on its electoral success!
Here we don’t just have a European shift of unprecedented scale . We have an upheaval of constants and correlations across the entire Western world .
Now that interest rates and international oil prices are rising at the same time, social unrest will not subside. It is more likely to worsen .
And the great movement will not be suspended.
It is more likely to accelerate …
- European political systems tried different ways to deal with the new ” radical ” right:
— First: if you can’t do otherwise, you let her rule.
#Meloni ‘s Italy is the typical example. The radical Right takes responsibility for governance and is judged on the ground. The result is the longest-lasting stable government of the Italian Republic !
— Second: you put it in the government to wear out.
Finland , and in a different form the Netherlands , have shown that participation in power can limit the potential of such a party. The responsibility of governing is a different matter from easy opposition . The rise of radical right parties has been halted , but their influence has not diminished . They await the decay of their opponents …
— Third: you exclude her, but adopt part of her agenda.
Austria is a typical example. #FPÖ won the elections, but remained out of government . At the same time, the traditional parties noticeably hardened their stance on immigration and security . Here the “far right” remained out of government, their policies were adopted by the rest…
— Fourth: you erect a complete “wall” to block them out.
The German Brandmauer is the most typical case. The AfD is excluded from government partnerships regardless of its electoral strength. Something similar happened in France . The “right” remains out of power , but their electoral strength continues to rise …
And anyway, at some point it is possible that this ” barrier ” will break . In France, perhaps the moment is approaching…
— And fifth: you fight it mainly with characterizations.
” Far-right “. ” Extreme “. ” Dangerous “. ” Anti-European “.
This may work for a while. But when citizens see that the issues they raise remain unresolved , there is a risk: the characterizations will cease to be frightening and start functioning as ” advertisement .”
- This is probably already starting to happen…
Why? Because quite simply, deeper causes that are driving the great shift in Western societies continue to strengthen :
The energy precision caused by the forced green transition ,
illegal immigration , the woke agenda .
In democratic societies, the ” great shift ” of societies leads to a ” great change ” of policies.
And that’s how you absorb the crisis .
This is the safety valve of Democracy .
But that is not happening yet.
Western elites persist in their ideologies and mistakes.
And the crisis is getting worse …
Recalling that ” patriarchal ” verse:
— The Lord teaches, whoever wishes to perish.
- And #Greece ?
This is where the most interesting things begin.
While the center of gravity of European societies is shifting to the right , the Greek government continues to chase the… ” Center “.
But not the real social center .
An imaginary “Center” , constructed in political and opinion poll laboratories .
Because the Greek Center , if we want to be historically accurate , was much more ethnocentric , patriotic , socially conservative and deeply connected to Greek identity .
It was “center” because it rejected the “polarization” between Left and Right and promoted their reconciliation .
He did not adhere to extremes , nor did he operate in a toxic and polarizing way within society…
The current “Center” that some people are looking for is something completely different: the famous ” ultra-centrists “. A small, noisy and over-prominent space , which, often with a blazing style :
–adopts the woke agenda (which he “disapproves”, by the way),
–defends the deconstruction of national borders and national sovereignty (without always admitting it),
–adopts the shift to Renewable Energy Sources (RES) , forgetting that they also need… batteries ,
–supports inclusiveness , but boasts that he built a ” fence ” on #Evros (which is already being bypassed )
–and declares absolute commitment to the major choices of the Brussels Eurobureaucracy , which are now being questioned everywhere in Europe.
Except that this space is not Greek society .
It cannot function as the ” center of gravity ” of Greek society…
And he’s not ” conciliatory ” – he’s #toxic !
And the problem is that the political vacuum has already appeared .
In the 2014 European elections, 5.94 million voted, and in 2019 , another 5.92 million voted.
But in 2024 , only 4.06 million people went to the polls.
Almost 1.9 million fewer.
Only between the national elections of May 2023 and the European elections of 2024 , the number of citizens who went to vote decreased by two million (from 6.06 million to 4.06 ).
No matter how you measure it, in recent years two million people have stopped voting – that is, one in three !
While others are leaving in the meantime.
And of those who remain, many vote by cursing and spitting …
In the rest of Europe, societies are reacting either by moving to more right-wing parties , or by pushing existing parties to more right-wing positions .
In Greece, they are currently leaving the active electorate and weakening the electoral legitimacy of the political system – creating a ” political vacuum “. Which, of course, cannot exist for long…
And no one wonders what will happen if the gap is filled , if those who don’t vote find something to represent them and those who still vote out of discontent find something that expresses them more.
Really, what will happen if the political vacuum is finally filled ?
The center of gravity of societies is #shifting . Everywhere!
And here they are looking for the Center among the ” extreme centrists ” – where it never existed .
And it doesn’t represent anything .
And then they invoke ” stability “, when they themselves cause an unprecedented political vacuum of representation and refuse to see the problems it creates, just as they refuse to understand where all societies are moving towards .
Actually,
The Lord is giving birth…
THANASSIS K.
