It is not possible for Ankara to announce that it is trying to acquire a nuclear weapon due to the relevant prohibitions, but Ankara appears to have initiated actions that will slowly but surely enable it to acquire nuclear technology and weapons , which Israel is monitoring very closely.
The occasion for public debate on Ankara’s intention to acquire nuclear weapons was given by Turkish President R.T. Erdogan himself in 2019, who had protested the monopoly of a few countries on possessing such weapons, wondering why Turkey should not have them when other countries in the region ( Israel ) do.
But what are Turkey’s steps that reveal that Ankara is working underground to acquire a nuclear weapon ?
It should be noted that in a recent poll conducted in Turkey, 71% of respondents said that Ankara should acquire nuclear weapons .
It is wrong to confuse Turkey’s efforts in this direction with the Akkuyu nuclear power plant program. The relevant agreement for the construction of the plant between Russia and Turkey was signed in 2010 and concerns a cost of 20 billion dollars , but it does not enable Ankara to acquire nuclear weapon production technology. This is because the relevant Moscow-Ankara agreement stipulates that Russia will have the plant’s fuel, while the spent fuel will return to Russia, preventing Turkey from having access to material that it could use to manufacture a nuclear weapon . However, Turkey, based on the relevant agreement, has already trained 2,000 nuclear scientists in Russia over the past period, who could be used to manufacture a nuclear weapon .
Turkey has developed programs to produce ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads in the future. We are talking about the “Tayfun Block 4” and “Yıldırımhan” programs. Although it is too early to talk about such a possibility, as these missiles are not ready, the programs themselves show that Turkey is working in this direction.
Turkey has signed a mining agreement with Niger in 2025 to secure uranium , as this African country exports uranium.
The strategic cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey has deepened significantly in recent years. It began in 1998 and expanded in 2003, acquiring a strategic dimension . Turkey has previously undertaken the upgrade of a number of Pakistani F-16 aircraft at the facilities of the Turkish company TUSAŞ , Pakistani pilots are trained in Turkey, while Turkish companies have built a number of warships for the Pakistani navy. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and the two countries have recently come very close on other issues, such as the establishment of a Sunni axis to confront Israel . In the last two years, visits by military – and not only – officials from the two countries have increased for various programs, especially after Turkey announced the establishment of a missile testing center in Somalia . Analysts believe that there are secret discussions between Ankara and Islamabad about providing nuclear technology to Turkey .
Recently, the relevant discussions about Turkey’s intention to acquire a nuclear weapon have taken on a more intense character, especially after the statements of Turkish Foreign Minister H. Fidan on a Turkish television channel three months ago, as he had hinted that Turkey was working in this direction.
The Turkish nuclear submarine production program, which has also concerned Israel, constitutes a very important opportunity for Turkey in this direction. This program allows Ankara to bypass international reactions in the field of its attempt to gain access to nuclear technology .
It seems that Turkey is methodically and steadily moving towards building a nuclear weapon . These developments are being closely monitored by Israel , which, based on its doctrine, will never allow Turkey to acquire a nuclear weapon and should be considered certain to act preemptively, just as it did in the case of Iran . Israel has already expressed concern about the Turkish nuclear submarine construction program.
The potential conflict between Turkey and Israel is focused on two areas. The expansion of the Turkish military presence in central Syria , and particularly in the Palmyra region, where Ankara has let slip that it will build a large military base . Also, in the event of the disclosure of Turkey’s efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon . The latest development would accelerate the potential conflict between Tel Aviv and Ankara , especially at a time when senior government and not only Israeli officials have announced that Israel’s next target after Iran will be Turkey .
Lazaros Kampouridis, Lieutenant General (retd.)
